8/31/2005

Some economic impacts I haven't seen in other places.

Ags: New Orleans is basically the only port of entry and exit for every farm product. The grains are already down pretty hard today because we can't sell them if we can't ship them. Sugar crop is ruined so that may be a good thing if we don't have to pay three times the world price for our own subsidized sugar and get to buy it at the world price---delivered to Frisco or LA. You are going to see almost no fruit outside of the growing areas because there is no fuel for the trains, none for the trucks, and none for the planes.

Airlines will be in huge trouble because of flight cancellations. Transport in general is going to be killed: trucks, rail, and air.

The economy is going to be hit very very hard in retailing, WalMart may not re-open 300 of its stores, but in general there won't be all that much to sell with New Orleans closed down and all the PC assholes not wanting those dirty ships with their dirty employees hanging around. Frisco and Seattle will take up some slack---Long Beach is always at capacity---but New York with their corrupt unions and governments long ago lost all shipping.

Not all bad. The rebuilding will employ tens of thousands and these guys will funnel money back into the economy fast. There will be a crises in insurance because a loss like this cannot be good for business---the rise in rates may be as much as 50% which is horrible for home building. Truck manufacturing will boom.

The government may have to step in, and when they do the PC bean counters will want to control all business they can. The lawyers are already sniffing their biggest pay off ever and Congress may have to step in and stop them.

The porn biz will be OK as will the drug biz. Movies are toast but they were heading that way anyway.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

[ but in general there won't be all that much to sell with New Orleans closed down ]

But not that much of manufactures imported from East Asia are unloaded in Gulf Coast ports.

Also, I think a lot of farm exports could be diverted to other ports. I'd worry most about gasoline prices.



[ Movies are toast but they were heading that way anyway. ... ]

If gasoline gets ever more expensive, people may tend to stay at home and cocoon at home even more. Maybe they'd watch a lot of movies at home on DVD or cable or Internet download. I'd look for stock plays that have to do with the "cocoon at home" theme to do well. ( I said "cocoon" with a "co-" in front of the "-coon," thank you. )

Video news clips of Haiti-in-North America are bullish for home security and firearms and police-related investments, too.

-- david.davenport.1@netzero.com