10/18/2005


THE UAW BITES THE BULLET

"I wouldn't mind dying -- it's that business of having to stay dead that scares the shit out of me," said somebody once, and it seems that the UAW finally figured out that if they kill GM the company will actually stay dead. The Golden Goose will finally become extinct. The dual instruments of the demise are unfunded pension liabilities (money that has to be paid in the future that you have no way of getting), and unfunded medical benefits that have to be paid when incurred.

Deals with unions "negotiated" during fat times are unworkable in the new world economy. The failure of the UAW to negotiate with Delphi has resulted in the bankruptcy of the largest auto parts company in the world; the result will be a non-union Delphi and a formerly employed work force with no pensions and no medical coverage. (Be sure to read Auto Extremist for a great post).

But the problems Detroit faces - the health care costs, the pension costs and the gross trade disadvantages - are problems America now must face as a nation. Don't believe it? Between one in seven and one in nine jobs in this country are still either directly or indirectly connected to the domestic automobile business. Quite simply, if the domestic auto industry goes down for the count it will affect every corner of this nation and impact the national economy far beyond the devastation caused by the two recent hurricanes. It would be a catastrophe of almost incalculable proportions.
It is a sign of the times that the UAW agreed to reduce both pension liability as well as medical coverage for both members and retirees at GM, but it ain't over til it's over. The company hating union members still have to ratify, and to those not familiar with UAW workers at the plant level, the agitation from the company hating faction of the union will be loud. There are the "red hots," the under educated bozos with communist ideas, who will try to agitate against the contract adjustment, calling it a "sell out to the fat cat capitalists in the board rooms." Those of us in SoCal remember the union refusing to negotiate with GM in Van Nuys even though anybody with a brain knew the company would close the plant unless they could reduce costs there. Knew it. But the "red hots" wouldn't give an inch, preferring instead to preen and demonstrate their manhood. So they "won," no jobs, no pensions, no medical coverage.

As we sit this AM, the city of San Diego is facing bankruptcy over unfunded pension liabilities and posh medical coverage, and because the unionized city employees won't back down, San Diego may become the 23rd city to go into Chapter Eleven. It will be the first large government bankruptcy since Orange County pulled a fast one and bailed on all their creditors five or so years ago.

Unfunded mandates from the Feds, the courts, and local governments may land all of us into the soup if we don't stop tossing loans and cash around like it was just another credit card we can max out til we get the next one.

"A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking about real money," as Everett Dirksen, the late GOP senator from Illinois once said. It won't be funny in a few years.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Between one in seven and one in nine jobs in this country are still either directly or indirectly connected to the domestic automobile business."

Oh boy, here come the scare tactics. are they counting every auto mechanic, the kid who changes the tires? Don't forget bike mechanics too! AND the guy who drives the sandwich truck! WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!

Xiaoding

Anonymous said...

I feel like such an idiot for buying GM bonds.And Ford. To the schmuck who posted above, when Detroit goes under, and the banks that that are up to their necks in auto related loans and mutual funds ( like 401k's and pension funds, not to mention insurance company investment portfolios) and the municipal bond market not to mention the effect on wholesalers and retailers, yeah it will be the kid who changes tires that will be out of work and quite possibly you.
If Bush and the Republicans had any stones ( with 55 senate seats, the house and the whitehouse what are they waiting for?) they would tomorrow:
1) Elimate Davis Bacon and ban federal funds to states and localities who have such schemes. Ask youself this, if you were building a house,would you limit yourself to the selection pool of builders using the highest cost labor then pick the lowest bidder in the pool? Would you be that foolsh with your own money? if not, then why should the government be that foolish with the taxpayers money?
2)Ban government workers unions. when civil servants go strike, who are they striking against? The public can't pick and choose among goverment agencies to patronize unlike merchants and manufacturers which they can choose to patronize.While the feds can't force local and state goverments to ban municipal workers unions, they can and should ban the tax deductability of taxes paid to state and local governments that permit municipal workers to strike or featherbed or near impossible to dismiss for cause workers rules. Hint: NYC school system janitors.

3)Elimate or modify Taft-Hartly. Detroit and most large domestic mfg's are in a jam as well as well as the airlines due to the fact that when union's strike they are faced with either taking a quick settlement or risking insolvency or fatal loss of market share or taking the deal and kicking the can down the road and let the future management deal with the long term consequences. Well guess what? the future has arrived for Delphi and GM.

Big business is not composed of saints. Most if not all are in part composed of assholes. but guess what? they are the ones who provide the jobs and pay the taxes that keep the country afloat, not the unions, not the civil servants,not the NGO's and non-profits,not the charities and not the tax consuming parasites. Wake up and smell the coffee this time the wolf really is at the door.

Anonymous said...

Big business will not vanish if one small part it goes under. In fact, it will prosper...bankruptcy is the way free economys redistribute the assets of failed enterprise, to new, more successful ones. What you suggest is nothing but socialism, the state ownership of business through proxy. But, oh, it feels good, though, to think that we can "solve" this problem. But one cannot "solve" a corpse. It's dead, Jim.

The management of GM, etc., has failed. They have been failing a long time, because it's a big company. This is all perfectly natural, and to be expected. To blame workers, or unions, for this is idiocy. And yet management takes credit for all the profits, but losses are always caused by the workers, somehow!

It is now in GM's best interest to hype to the moon their problems, and to make it seem like Noahs flood, so they can pick yours and mine pockets clean. They are thieves, and liars, and I say not a penny. Not a goddamn cent.

xiaoding

Anonymous said...

Oh boy, here come the scare tactics. are they counting every auto mechanic, the kid who changes the tires? Don't forget bike mechanics too! AND the guy who drives the sandwich truck! WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!

You first, DingaLing.

Have you considered the effect this will have on the health care industry, if GM sets a precedent for drastic health care benefits cuts, a precendent that other big US employers emulate?

It could be the end of the high-priced -- and high income -- health care industry as we know it ... very bearish for lots of stocks in that sector.

And furthermore, if you're not scared of the scare tactics you describe, I assume that you assume that trade protectionism to keep foreign automakers out is nothing to be afraid of.

-- david.davenport.1@netzero.com

Anonymous said...

xiaoding,
Have you ever met a payroll? Have you ever had to deal with government mandates? Please. we already have a quasi socialist economy. Ever negotiate a company health insurance coverage
plan? Disability or workman's comp? The labor laws regarding the do's and dont's of hiring and firing?
You are in favor of putting the monkey on managements back? I'm with you but if you want management to take full responsibility then lets give them full authority. Full Right To Work Law nationwide. Eliminate Taft-Hartley. Privatize unemployment insurance and charge rates commensurate to the business practices of the industry the company is in and it's particular hiring/dismissal rates. Just for starts.
"It is now in GM's best interest to hype to the moon their problems, and to make it seem like Noahs flood, so they can pick yours and mine pockets clean. They are thieves, and liars, and I say not a penny. Not a goddamn cent."
Sure pal. what tax bracket are you in? Ever heard of the Pension Guaranty Board? Guess who's pockets are going to get picked to make those pensions whole? So let GM go broke. Then Ford. Then Chrysler. Then all the UAW parts suppliers followed by unionized steel makers and trucking companies. And thats just for starters. Then as David pointed out, there will be a mad rush for the door as companies dump health insurance coverage. So unless your a 25 year old devout single Mormon male, guess what health insurance is going to cost you to buy on your own, particularly in states that mandate things like acupuncture and chiropractor coverage. And lets not forgot what will happen to Fanny-Mae and the other government mortgage schemes when the failure rates climb sky high. Your ass big enough to cover all this? Be careful what you wish for, you may get it. And lets not overlook the huge stock market correction and bank failures when the cascade effect of the largest industrial company in the country failing will have.
"But one cannot "solve" a corpse. It's dead, Jim" who is going to pay for the burial? you? Right.

Anonymous said...

Seriously DingaLing, if GM and then Ford go BK, the national situation will become too dire to laugh off with tired free enterprise homilies.

I am predicting that an era of protectionism is coming, stuff that will make Smoot-Hawley and the 1930's seem quaint. It will happen whether or not you and I like it.

This will become THE national political topic of 2006 and 2008, along with the collapse of the real estate financial sector and all the increased unemployment.

Iraq? Old news, something like intervention in the Balkans in the 1990's.

When and if GM and Ford go down, big-time trade protectionism will be on the away, and it may not be fun or funny.

-- david.davenport.1@netzero.com

Anonymous said...

Howard your in the securities biz, what say you?

Howard said...

There are some businesses that are too big to die. We have "rescued" two huge banks in the last ten years; banks that were mismanaged in almost every way but they were both so large that allowing them to fail would have wrecked the economy. We rescued Chrysler because they were too big. The railroads were built with government money because the enterprise was too big; ditto the space program. There is no doubt that when you consider all the garages, auto parts stores, spark plug manufacturers and so on that the figure of one in seven of us are employed because of the domestic car business. I've written many times here about the impossibility of running a company with a UAW contract, but the interesting thing about the UAW making the big compromise is that it was the UNION that gave, and appears willing to give more. And Socialized Medicine?? Keep in mind that our companies are attempting to compete against companies that have ZERO health insurance costs; this factor alone accounts for $1,500 extra per car made in this country.

MaxedOutMama said...

Great post, Howard. You're right to the point as usual.

Anonymous said...

Hey there. I like your blog. I'm out blog surfing and came across yours, nice work.

regards,
california healthnet health insurance quote

Anonymous said...

Hey, i like your blog, it's good. Any others? I have two myself. You've got some good ideas here, keep it up!

regards,
texas health insurance plan