1/21/2006

Quick Stock opinion: it's the flat yield curve, stupid. I have preached here for almost a month that the entire economy is threatened by these interest rates. Inverted yield curve means recession. This is true so often that this signal is an alert of the first magnitude. The Fed has hurt this economy three to four times in the past decade and they are doing it again. Rates are way too high right now when you consider that oil prices may hit $80 as US hating Chavez and Iran cut back on oil deliveries. It's like the Fed never reads a paper that has real world news in it.

Google (GOOG). Shares slumped 36.98, or 8.5%, to 399.46 in about four times its normal volume (a horrible piece of news). It was trading below its 50-day moving average; a major sell signal for this wildly inflated stock. It better rebound Monday or watch it die. It isn't all gloom and doom because if you are in the stocks you should be in, the IBD New America or their top 100 you are fine. Most actually rose in price in the face of this huge selloff. Examples: F5 Networks (FFIV) surged 2.08 to 61.59; Schlumberger (SLB), meanwhile, vaulted 7.38 to 122.25, an all-time high. This rise was duplicated in most oil exploration stock.

Let's hope Chirac nukes Iran over the weekend. Right now we are only in the beginning stages of what could become a serious game of chicken. Russia ain't going to be with us because they want a nuclear Iran disrupting oil in the region because that will help make Russia rich. Putin has basically restored the police state in that country and the state owns all means of production.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

(1) Interest rates:

Rates are way too high right now when you consider that oil prices may hit $80 as US hating Chavez and Iran cut back on oil deliveries.


But the US real estate market needs cooling off. I don't see why it's a great idea to hold short term interest rates low because oil prices are high. The USA may have to endure the consequences of another oil embargo as part of our war with the Muslims. Notice I didn't say our war with "terrorism."

In general, the Fed needs to raise interest rates to fight inflation and to revive the market for longer term bonds. Investers aren't buying long maturity bonds because the yields are too low.

(2) Google:

Internet rumors are circulating that Google has been faking some of its page view stats.

(3) Chirac and his threat to use nukes:

Why did he feel the need to make that threat? It makes me suspect that Iran has threatened to hit France, of all places.

-- david.davenport.1@NETZERO.COM