8/06/2007

Buy now? Come on, that's broker bullshit.

No it isn't and let me tell you my experience, because you have to go with what you've learned or you haven't learned anything. I used to manage sales for managed futures in our firm. We had four of the top ten futures traders in the world and they had (and still do) the best track records in the world.

This is how we would guide new money into these accounts and why. First, it is most important to get in these funds at the right time. OK, so what is the "right time?" After a big downturn. It is obvious that when a cycle is topping your entry point is going to be higher than a "bottom" and your return will be affected. Should you buy when the fund is at 100 after a rise from 80 your return when the fund rises to 110 will be far less than it would have been had you jumped in when it was 80. Therefore the way to enter a fund is when it pulls back, always keeping in mind that you don't jump in and out. So my experience tells me that right now is the best time we've had to put on new positions in a long long time. Yes, the indexes look like shit but there are funds and stocks out there that haven't been affected very much, which tells you that the buy and hold crowd didn't bail. You have to study, I always go to Investors Business Daily (subscription only) for the best information in the world for investors. Keep in mind that if you ain't been doing some homework (two hours per day) for the past month at the very least, you don't belong in the investing biz today. Some "tried and true" formulas are total shit. Example would be the one that tells you not to buy companies with high price earnings figures. Well, had you bought Amazon back in '02 ago when their PE was something like 120, you missed one of the biggest moves in history, rising something like 160% til it hit a top. Instead, look at things like profits over the past six quarters or so, forgetting the P/E altogether. The worst advice, uttered by every TV asshole on every channel is: buy low and sell high. Stupid stupid stupid. Nobody can tell a bottom or a top. The real advice here is: buy high and sell higher; most successful traders buy the new highs because all studies indicate that a stock making new highs will move higher. If you study you will see hundreds of moves like the Amazon move on stocks with ridiculous P/Es. If you've had your eye on something for a while and have good reasons to like the stock, buy it now. Now.

No comments: