Is the Bottom In?

MarketsIt is not possible to "pick a bottom" in either stock or commodities markets, although tons of people now are pretending the expertise to do so. The graveyard is littered with corpses of people who picked tops and bottoms but found that their timing was a little off. All one can actually do is look at history for similarities and see if we are repeating the past, in fact that is what technical analysis supposedly does. The thing is, that if technical analysis actually worked there would be no market. We'd always know the ups and downs. Lots of "stock pickers" sell investment/trading systems based on the past patterns as if these patterns meant something. I was a commodity broker for twenty years and under CFTC and NFA rules it is a violation to sell any commodity or commodity fund based on past performance, in fact the phrase "past performance is no guarantee of future results" must be a part of any verbal sales pitch and must prominently footnote anything sent through the mail.

So what to do? People who are rich are now buying stocks secure in the knowledge that the bottom is almost in, and if you look back twenty years from now you will see that the market is up thousands of points from now.

OK, but bottom? Historically, going back to the end of WWII all bottoms have happened just after a financial meltdown of one thing or another, including commodities. The S&L crises was a bottom, LCTM was a bottom, and so was the dot com bubble. This "credit bubble" will be worked off very soon and most of us feel confident in telling you to get ready to pounce right now. You should have at least four stocks that look good in every respect other than that the indexes are still pointing down because as it sits right now you must remain on the sidelines because the charts still tell us this is a bear market. Wait til they turn and then scale in.

Don't listen to the economic morons on FOX, MSNBC, or CNN....CNBC is always touting buy buy buy so you can't pay any attention there. You must be your own judge now. Just be ready because we are close to a bottom even though chartwise there may be another 300 or so points to the downside.

Trust me. I'm never wrong