5/31/2008

Dirty Data?

Markets and Economy The data is dirty. It means that we are getting what used to be reliable data from various sources that are suddenly in contradiction. What are indicators that are lagging and what are "forward looking?" Are they being reported accurately? Do formerly accurate ratios now mean nothing?

Things change, and data used for investing can suddenly become useless. I go way back to the days where we used to mob the computer screens when M-1 Money Supply was reported. Then suddenly it meant nothing. We went to M-2, then gold silver ratios, oil vs certain stocks and so on. Believe it or not there were olden days when the silver soybean ratio was one of the most accurate of indicators.

Most of us look at the carnage of the credit markets, the massive unemployment caused by the collapse of the housing market, the rampant foreclosures and wonder why the unemployment stays flat, the economy shows modest growth, and productivity rises. Gasoline prices and food costs should mean ruinous inflation. So the stock markets go up.

Don't ask me, I'm only the bus driver who flunked my drivers test three times before I passed it, but I am confused and when confused the rule is to be on the sidelines.

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