9/03/2008

OH OH, Brit Bookmakers see Palin Dead

``Lots of our punters are betting `Shocking' Sarah's days are numbered,'' he added, using a nickname he came up with for the first-term Alaska governor.
The odds have changed dramatically since the out of wedlock kid came out of the closet.
``Ever since he appointed her, people have stopped betting on McCain,'' said David Williams of Ladbrokes in London. ``He went down like a sack of potatoes as far as the punters are concerned.''
These odds are from online bettors but people who put their money where their mouths are have to be listened to. Main article is at Bloomberg--very slow load. How accurate are the "punters"? Only twice in the century through 2004 -- the 1916 election and the 2000 contest between Bush and Democrat Al Gore -- did the betting markets get it wrong on the popular vote. The bettors consider Palin a disastrous choice, not because of the kid but because Palin didn't disclose. We will see.......Always keep in mind that the big issue is gasoline prices which hit all of us. Pickens sees crude prices back above $130 before election.

2 comments:

Sawbuck said...

Two points:

1. We are 60 days out - and the Convention isn't over.

2. Fuck the Brits. They lost to us twice, had their asses saved by us twice, and hated Maggie Thatchers guts. They are gutless. Period.

3. The failure to disclose is bullshit. We have a winner is Palin. Just remember to vote.

Ed said...

No No No. Not true here in the good old USA, and that is where it counts.

I've been following 2 books (as well as of course, Intrade).

I locked in McCain +175 and +180.

Both Books dropped odds down to +150 last week and haven't moved.

Intrade is stuck around 60/40 Obama.

Betting is a local game, you know that. i.e. If you call a local book on your local team, you'll get slightly tighter odds.

The greatest bet I ever lost was on the Chinese Women's soccer vs USA. The matchup was as 50/50 as you could get, yet the odds here in America (local team) were spotting the Chinese almost a 2-1.
We pounded that line. Well, we all know how that one turned out--- BUT, it was a great value and if the USA goalie hadn't cheated (ahem) or if the Chinese goalie was more steeped in how we play here in the US (goalie leaves the line whenever the F they want to) we would have one that one.

No, I wouldn't worry yet. These shows head towards 50/50 and I doubt I'll get the disparity line bumps during the debates like I did when Kerry "slaughtered Bushitler"
Lines went from 1-1 or 3-2 to as much as 3-1.

So Bush gave me a tax cut and I cleaned up at the books.