3/23/2009

Jesus Buying Stocks

What the fuck? This rally (220 points at 11AM) is a blue chip rally, something nobody can ignore. Dow stocks are expensive. You have to have big bucks by definition to buy 100 shares, while the lower price stocks attract the other types of people. So over the past few days, mom and pop ain't the ones buying. Why? Other than the AIG inspired anti-business rallies, there has been nothing for what passes as good news these days til this morning. Headlining everything---housing up, oil up, base metals up, Financials actually up---make for a pretty solid story that the market has bottomed. Plus the stimulus is finally happening with a trillion committed today which almost guarantees a bank rally.

The capper? Never, ever, ever, stand in front of a Fed locomotive. That has been true since I started in the markets back in the 80s and it is Gospel 100% true. Every element of the government is finally on board, even if only temporarily, and this means the rocket has been ignited.

Now what? If the financials are finally funded normal people will suddenly qualify for loans at the lowest going rate---requirements for borrowing will be lowered---all of us will be able to buy cars again, some businesses will post profits and the unemployment numbers will at least level off; and those fucking Europeans will be left in the lurch with stagnating economies because they haven't done anything to lighten the bad debt load.

Obama's Administration has finally shed it's socialist impulses (er, well if only for a week or two) and the market is headed to 9,000 fairly fast. Even the S&P 500 is heading for a monster move. Looks good. For the moment.

But, there has never been a rally from a bear market bottom until the bottom has been tested, at least once. It ain't over.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

It's a short covering rally.

-brrodrack