Markets and EconomyHAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN

Aimed at the Small Investor (5K to 25K)
Hillary Clinton a sell signal. But do not Despair, there is Great News out there too.

With the single exception of unemployment it is hard to find a negative number in the economic data unless you are a Liberal. The market action this week gave the timid who have been on the sidelines an excuse to get in. And in truth there are lots of good buys out there for people who do their homework. As I've commented here many times, I'm a follower of William O'Neil at IBD and if you pick the right New America stocks you stand to make a killing. And I mean a killing. O'Neil is a big volume guy and index volume is good on the upside and weak on the downside: this is a Bull.

NEWS: While you can't trade on news because it is always "in the market", there is always the "Big Surprise" and you better be aware of two potential bombshells out there; one bearish and two bullish. That Bear bombshell is named Hillary Clinton. If she runs and people think she can pull the Democrat Party with her, the stock market will collapse 3,000 points. The Dems will repeal all the tax cuts; investors using dividends as criteria will be crushed; and the drug companies might sink to depression lows. To correctly play this bull: pay attention every day, scale out of positions as your stocks profit, and just be alert. Nothing is as dangerous to your financial future as her candidacy.

The potential TOTAL BULL NEWS events will be the capture of Saddam and the discovery of WMDs. Mainly because either will almost certainly delay the Clinton presidential run til 2008. But psychologically each will be dynamite. Scale out anyway, Clinton still might run. You never know what these feminists will do. When (if) WMDs are found the Dow could go to 11,000 in two days. Even without those bullish happenings look for the Dow to be well over 10,000 by Christmas.

CURRENCIES: As I have posted here many times, currencies almost always give you two to three chances to get in. The down trend of the dollar cannot reverse in one or two weeks. If you will check the charts, this is about the sixth bottom we've had in the last year and we had four bottoms in the July December period alone. I will be a dollar buyer (short the Euro) only on a confirmed change in trend, since these trends last years I'm not going to lose any sleep "missing" something. The cheap dollar is one reason we have positive manufacturing data. You need to be aware of the currency markets.

WHY THE GOLD RALLY IS GOOD: We need some inflation badly. The betting on gold is that the dollar slide is not over and that the Europeans cannot get together on any financial cures for their own economies. Silver is also roaring. $5 silver hasn't been seen in an awfully long time. I'll publish an interesting post on siver mid-week; this metal has more industrial uses than you can imagine. It is not a "precious" metal any longer. BTW lead, zinc, nickel (used in stainless steel) and copper are flying too.

UNEMPLOYMENT: this weeks figures were NOT unemployment, they were the Jobless numbers. It's great news that this figure is getting better for the third straight week, but we need to see unemployment (the Jobs Rate) similarly dropping to feel super confident. However, Jobless improvement is a leader if things are getting better; unemployment is now the only major indicator looking bearish, but as I've said before it's the only indicator that matters to the Democrats, their media bed partners, and the the sweat guys. Durable goods are UP, new home sales are UP, hotel bookings are WAY up (confident people travel and don't sleep in their cars), airline ticket sales are up marginally, manufacturing is up, some good techs are making money, computer orders are up (110% adjusted over the past 13 weeks,) the chips (watch INTEL) are up; UPS reported increased deliveries for the first time in a long time.

The economy has turned which is proved by the bond market

the ten year is at 4.25 and as I polish this piece some stupid woman "expert" on FOX is claiming the rise in rates as a negative for the markets; the rise is the MOST positive sign of all. Listen you stipid bitch and anybody out there listening to this "expert", the reason PRIVATE demand for money is rising is that there is DEMAND, like for business expansion, new construction, new factories. The only reason an "expert" like this gets a job is that she's got big tits and gives great head. There can be no other reason.

. The only people who dont' know what rising rates in this enviornment mean are in the the media and on every channel in every city. The Liberals needed a bad economy and the media liberals will attempt to sell "bad economy" to the American public til unemployment is below 4per cent, the Dow is at 12,000, profits are at record highs, and Donald Trump enters the ministry. The data is the main reason the Democratic crazies are campaigning against "the sixteen words"; they have absolutely nothing else to talk about. Don't listen or read the "news" to make investment decions. Corporate profits for Q1 were REVISED UP by $20.1 billion; profits mean dividends. Buy.

CAUTION: this is NOT 1994, morons will not make money. Keep in mind that dividends are the engine moving this market. Companies missing profit targets are being savaged. Lexmark dropped from around $73 to $59 in ONE DAY with a gap opening down of $10 because they missed their profit estimate. Lexmark was one of scores of companies that were similarly hit. BTW that was NOT a company any small player should have been in anyway.

The "Sophisticated Small Investor", meaning the bozos who have been on the sidelines "studying and watching" a 40% market rally, started getting into the market this week. God only knows where they'll put their money, but pay no attention. These people have an uncanny knack of waiting at the train station for their flight to Miami. Have your own rules and stick with them.

FINALLY: Things look very good. We could see a growth rate of near 5% heading into next year. The worrisome things you see in the news are problems that must be solved politically; lost jobs in the factory area, the jerk EU stopping Genetically Engineered food into Africa, the Wahabis in the Democratic Party, or the Goddam French winning the Super Bowl are all things out of your control. Don't think about them. If you buy on fundamentals and get out on technicals you'll be fine. This is not the 90s where any stock will work. Stocks that miss their profit targets will go in the toilet in a day. But Happy Days are Here Again, if you work at what you are doing.

BTW if you want more bullish news, the tax rebates are in the mail.