10/11/2003

Economy and Markets
IF YOU ARE IN NASDAQ YOU ARE GOING TO GET NAILED

Economy looks to be rebounding, Dow and S&P stocks look good, but the NASDAQ is in bubble territory with speculators back to doing the same stupid 90's things. They will get burned AGAIN. Don't get caught up in this stuff. Look at it this way: a stock selling at thirty times earnings means it will take thirty YEARS to get your money back and the old 90's bullshit about "you don't understand" that the stock price rise will solve everything is total crap. Look for a major correction in the NASDAQ; as in at least 300 points. If you don't have a really good stock you are going to be buried.

A word about technical analysis, something all of us should know something about. A term that applies right now is "resistance". This means that the market "resists" or is stopped from moving beyond a certain point, usually old high points. Right now the old high point on the Dow is 9682 and the S&P previous high point is 1040 (round off). You will note that both numbers cannot be penetrated on CLOSES, meaning the market must close above these numbers. These numbers will be penetrated eventually but right now the market is stalled. Good numbers next week will take care of that.

Stay your course and don't let irrational exuberance get you.

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