12/03/2003

Markets

Under the Heading: A rising tide lifts all boats Goldman Sachs has declared that this bull market has completely bailed out GM with its pension fund; that it is now fully funded. That's news folks.

I bailed out of 1/3 of my S&P calls so that I am now in the market for free almost nothing. I don't give stock tips, I've been calling for a 10,000 Dow by Christmas for at least six months (Actually 9500 since April 30). I didn't call for 10,000 by Christmas til late July, HERE. It is clear that the cheap dollar is causing the huge rally in the manufacturing business across this country. There are limits to this. LATE ADD in response to many emails calling me a chickenshit, a person with no convictions and so on. Always, always, always "scale out" of trades so that you are in markets with almost no risk at all. This is risk management 101. If the market tanks tomorrow and stays down I have lost nothing. If it roars upward like I think it will I will triple my money.

Under the heading "A falling dollar has consequences". Oil prices will remain high because Saudis sell oil for dollars and the dollar has lost 30% of its value. Oil at $30 per bbl is around $24 to the Saudis and others who sell oil for dollars. This slide has got to stop.

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