7/15/2005

IMAX stock tip, continued----there are major problems with IMAX as I researched the stock. There are almost no listings for either location or movies being shown. If you do a Google search for IMAX theatres in LA you get two. Yahoo search yields zero. Since I know of at least four in Los Angeles and two in outlying cities, I think this should be a major consideration when looking at the stock. It is also true that the company seems more than eager for self promotion without giving you the info you need to attend anything anywhere. This is probably why the stock is a $10 stock. Down from an historic high above $60. This from an analyist

Screen Daily, the online edition of Britain's Screen International trade publication, quoted an analyst as saying that a recent report on Imax by the ratings agency Moodys "was one of the most scathing he had seen." The trade paper itself commented: "Imax Corp. is in serious trouble." This report has been corrected because Moody's is quite positive on the company.
HOWEVER stock ownership among institutions is a huge 60% plus, always an indication that the stock is held by people who really know their shit. In addition there are a lot of short sellers on the stock, but the word seems to be that they will buy back like lightning if the quarterly report shows a profit. The accounting seems muddy. Lots of their systems are owned by chains who are going bankrupt because of the movie going slump. Their accounting, backed up by analysts, shows very low debt when compared to cash on hand. So I'd say this is a shot at the future, and at $10 I'm taking a small shot. Then there is this scathing info about their self-promotion
Imax's hype is catching up to its stock.
Expectations were running sky high earlier in the year, partly due to Imax's over-promotion; Imax's PR department has already churned out 16 press releases during the first 16 weeks of this year some of which merely rehash old news. Below is a list of its theater announcements since the beginning of the year:

* 1/5: Announced signing of 6 theaters in China to open in 2008. Net addition: 6 theaters
* 1/10: Announced signing of 2 theaters in Mexico. Actually, pushed up the time-line for opening previously announced theaters from 2006 and 2007 to 2005. Net addition: 0 theaters
* 1/13: Announced signing of 3 theaters in China to open in 2008. Net addition: 3 theaters
* 1/18: Announced signing of 2 theaters in the Middle East to open in 2005 & 2007. Net addition: 2 theaters
* 2/2: Announced signing of 1 theater in Netherlands to open in 2005. Net addition: 1 theater
* 2/9: Announced signing of 2 theaters in China to open in 2007. Actually, announced theater locations of previously announced deal. Net addition: 0 theaters
* 3/8: Announced signing of 2 theaters in Latin America to open in 2005 & 2006. Net addition: 2 theaters
* 3/17: Announced signing of 2 theaters is India. Actually, expanded previously announced agreement to 2 from 1 theater. Net addition: 1 theater
* 3/22: Announced upcoming opening of 1 theater in Spain. Deal was originally announced in 2004. Net addition: 0 theaters

2. Lack of U.S. growth.
Since the beginning of the year, Imax has yet to sign a single U.S. theater deal. A recent press release stated that 70% of new theater signings in 2004 were international. Is the U.S. market already saturated?
More HERE. Like I said before, do your research.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Can anyone verify that new IMAX theaters are actually doing business in China, India, Middle East, etc.?

And wasn't there an earlier era of IMAX hype in the 1980's?

-- david.davenport.1@netzero.com