11/08/2005

Economics briefly: as I said last week, the "troubles" in France will affect currency markets. The dollar is exploding, up a full point and a half this week, and up more that six full points in the last month. The more the riots in France and Europe continue the more likely it is that the EC will go in the tank, now at two year lows against the dollar. Techies see a close under the 18-day moving averages and this is considered a warning that the longer-term trend could be turning down. The bigger deal is the downturn in the Gold market. We could be looking at major changes in markets.

Energy prices are falling, and many say that they will continue to fall in inverse proportion to the rise of the dollar. Things could get very dicey if the Arab crooks won't take Euros for their oil. Next downside target is 58.03 (where I said it could go several weeks ago). After that?

I think markets are now influenced by the problems in Europe. Period.

And how about the French Stock Market? After a steady decline the market has been rallying since the day the riots started. What does this mean? Nothing, because the cross ownership of French companies, the government ownership of large pieces of others, plus the favored lending schemes for "good" companies, make this a very poor indicator of anything. Other than that the French government may be supporting the market.

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